Thursday, July 06, 2006

Thoughts about North Korea

Recent missile launches by North Korea, Pyongyang, have caused quite a bit of a stir. There is a lot involved in whether North Korea has nuclear weapons and the means by which to deliver those weapons to allies of the United States, or parts of the nation itself. Considering that North Korea has acted without regard of its ally, China, the intentions are worrisome. The fact that they have been a nation preparing for war since the Korean War doesn’t help either.

From 1950-53 North and South Korea were in an active state of war, with the U.S. actively involved on the behalf of South Korea. I say an “active state of war” because while there was a cease-fire agreement there has never been an end to the war. North Korea was helped by China during the active conflict. The toll is estimated at 2.5 million Koreans, which includes over 10% of the then N. Korean population, 54,000 Americans, 1,500 Canadians and 390,000 Chinese. N. Korean government has never fully recovered and has kept it’s populace in an ever ready stance to ward off attacks from America, that they have said are “imminent” for over 50 years.

Obviously the U.S. is not trusted. It’s people live, I imagine, in a state of fear similar to how Americans felt in the first few months after 9/11 every day for half a century now. And it is this ever present fear that has kept their leader Kim Jong-Il in power. Even so the nation has had internal problems for decades, not the least of which is a weak and declining economy, starving people and little fuel. Now adding to the mistrust, hunger, generally poor living conditions and international tension are the missiles and probable nuclear weapons program.

It seems like N. Korea is pushing the U.S. to react. No nation is happy about the launches that have happened nor the at least 3 more threatened to take place. The implications of these launches, that may or may not have warheads armed, is terrifying. Japan, South Korea and the entirety of Asia are potential targets. The long-range missiles place Alaska and potentially the Philippines and Hawaii in danger. Only China is not concerned about being attacked; though if attacks were to happen China would suffer from the refugees and economic spillover.

In the face of this, some in Congress say we need to cave in and start one-on-one talks. I disagree. There is no common ground for our 2 nations. There is no trust. And because they have displayed a show of force we cannot be pushed into talks. It would be a huge win for the U.S. to speak only with N. Korea, leaving our allies and the other concerned parties in the cold. We are not the only ones involved. And as stated above, this has never just been about the actions of one or 2 nations.

I cannot see how you can shake the hand of someone who has a loaded gun in the other. Manic paranoia is never a good trait, and when it feeds nationalism it can easily be deadly. We need to stay with our friends and make a unified statement on what has to happen. Their friend needs to reason with them, and other interested parties like Russia need to stand firm that nothing can move forward til this is resolved. The fear that has held the world has been the proliferation of nuclear weapons, especially if that lead to them being in the hands of an unstable or unreasonable nation/individual. Few nations of the world are more insular, fearful and aggressively positioned than North Korea. It is estimated that they have one of the largest standing armies in the world, that has been training for action continuously for 50 years.

We cannot let N. Korea fall. It’s people must be fed, its economy improved, fuel imported and trade opened. The fact is that if any one of these things fail, then the dominoes start to fall. Considering the amount of conventional weapons, military personnel, instability, and the probable fact of nuclear arms one of those dominoes would lead to horrendous consequences. But we cannot at the same time let fear lead us into a diplomatic solution that feeds the machine that has brought us to this point. It would be too much like appeasement and that has never work, not for Hitler nor anyone else.

North Korea must follow international guidelines in their actions. They must approach the world with an open hand, not a closed fist, and speak calmly. The world must be willing to listen for a whisper for help and then do so. Without both of those actions I feel the only other thing to prepare for is a conflict where the number of dead would make WW II seem small in comparison. It's time for the U.N., our allies and theirs, to all stand in one voice and say: 'You cannot stand against everyone, and you don't have to. Open up a little and we will help you make everything alot better. Drop your gun and open you fist. Shake our hand.'

This is what I think, what do you think?



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