Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Israel - Hezbollah part 2

continued from Israel - Hezbollah part 1

This is by no means a complete or absolutely accurate account of the past. But it is a point of reference for those that would seek to understand the roots of the situation. It is these facts, as I understand them, that lead to the PLO, and various other groups – many now designated as terrorists. These facts are the root of the situation, a group of people that have created a home and other groups that are opposed to those homes. Both groups are diametrically opposed to the other, on religious and political levels.

Given this self-acknowledged simplistic understanding of the situation, looking at the current conflict leads me to several conclusions. The first is that no matter how this unfolds it will not be the last problem. Also it seems inevitable that future conflicts will grow to include other nations and groups. Eventually large-scale war seems unavoidable. Considering the development of non-Geneva weapons, and their disputed use, mass deaths of civilians on both sides will occur – in levels far surpassing those currently seen.

The reason I believe that this process will continue, is that for all intents and purposes this is a vortex. Each action on either side provides impetus for an action from the other side, each side escalates and the situation worsens. The children, especially, having lost family, friends and innocence grow up with anger against the side that hurt them. They grow up with this anger and turn into passive or active opponents in a future conflict. Thus in each fight the next generation of fighters is created.
This is similar to my thoughts on the current U.S. ‘war on terror’. Fighting ideologies is impossible. The more you fight, the more that die the more that you create another generation of fighters. The only 2 ways to remove that cycle is to either commit genocide, or empire building. Genocide is not an option. It is despicable in any form, for any reason. Any nation or group that would be as fanatical as to presume that it is an answer should be isolated from the rest of the world. Empire building is unpopular, but the only realistic option. Absorbing the loser and integrating them into the winners culture creates a more stable future, given 2 or so generations. This has been the way of the world since the Egyptian, Sumerian, Greek times. I do not mean the removal of the losers culture, no great empire removes the past of its various people. Like during the rule of Alexander the Great the various people are integrated into the winner’s culture without complete loss of their heritage.

Of course enacting such a complete absorption today is something that is feared by many nations. One empire leads to others and eventually they all compete to be number one. While little different than the race to be the world superpower, as the U.S. is today, the differences terrify many nations. Once religion and differences on that basis are added the stakes are raised even higher. Thus every nation fears taking actions that would create such an active empire, as retaliation from the rest of the world would be swift.

continued in part 3



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