12 predictions for 2010

Written by Michael Vass

What way better to start the new year than by making a prediction? Considering the mid-term elections later this year, the Bills facing Congress, and the uncertainty of the economy it seems like this is a great time to make an educated guess.

So without further ado I present the 12 predictions I expect to see in some form and degree in 2010. I must add though that I do hope to be wrong on several of these predictions.



What do you think? Let me know at VASS

September 11 - seven years ago and now

In less than 9 hours America will be observing the 7th anniversary of 9/11. The attacks that day were the worst in American history, and many of us can still recall where we were as the planes hit the Pentagon and the Twin Towers.

Politicians have used 9/11 as a weapon and shield since that day. Some have used it to create political influence. Others have used it to increase the power of aspects of the Government. And still others have used it to express their own fears and dislike of laws and Government. All are fair to an extent, and virtually all are wrong to use this despicable act for their self-interest.

Tomorrow, both Presidential candidates will inevitably use the day to promote some aspect of their Presidential campaigns.

On September 11, 2001 I was at my brokerage office in midtown Manhattan. I saw live television as the 2nd plane struck, and watched the Towers fall. I was among the millions that feared for their lives, and those of loved ones and friends on that day. I walked among the millions that were stunned and dazed on the streets of Manhattan. I had several colleagues and friends that were hurt, killed, or otherwise immediately impacted by the Towers that day.

In the wake of this horrific act of fanatical religious rage, I was sure that New York City would be struck again by the mindless uncaring evil that terrorism is within days if not months. Considering that London, Paris, Tel Aviv, Tokyo, and most any other major city across the world has to deal with this kind of insanity on a repeated basis such a thought was not (and is not) unreasonable.

To date we have not seen another attack on U.S. soil. We have seen several individuals enter the nation from the Canadian border with the intent to harm innocent civilians. They all have been intercepted without their plans being enacted. None have ever been identified coming from the Mexican border.

Today we hear some act as if America can never again be touched. They believe that America need not protect itself. They believe that vigilance is unwarranted, and pro-active steps for protection useless or provocative. I find such thoughts naïve and potentially deadly.

Today we also hear some that seek to restrict ever more freedoms under an umbrella of protection from a never ending war on fanatical ideas. They would strike at any foreign thought or belief. They would dominate for fear of any weakness becoming a new point of attack. They would give up individuality for the comfort of safety.

Both of these extremes of thought are wrong. They are extreme views that fail to see the reality of the world, which lies far closer to the center than where they stand.

The reality is that at some point America will be struck again. No nation is immune or impenetrable. Fanatics have no time limits, nor can they be negotiated or bribed from their views. Their ideals cannot be killed, or corrupted, or beaten by force. The best any nation can do is to hold back the beast for a time and minimize its effectiveness.

Every year, every day that America goes without an attack on our population is only one day. And one day, hopefully far far in the future, we will have to start the clock over and count up again. I don‘t say this to be a sensationalist, or to be a fear monger. Its reality, and straightforward. And I pray that when that day comes it is minimized to the least extent possible.

To those that think America can just hide in our nation and the world will leave us alone I say wake up. For those that think that mere force will eliminate any potential threat I say calm down and think. America is always a target of fanatics because we are free, rich, and powerful all at once. And you cannot kill an idea (especially when that idea is a religion – no matter how twisted that idea is made to be).

I suppose I don’t have a direct point of this post. I’m not trying to make a conclusion, or place blame. Neither benefits the nation. Rather I am reflecting on a moment that struck me to my core. A day that will never leave me in a way that many in the nation never will feel, I hope.

Over the next hour, and through the next day I want my readers to reflect on a few thoughts. We have a great nation, flaws and all. We can believe in whatever God we wish, or none at all if we chose. We can voice our thoughts even if others disagree. We can travel as we chose, even if it costs more or takes longer than we like. We can live where we please, work as we are capable, and earn most of what we are worth.

Millions serve our nation everyday. They protect us, and defend us from laws, individuals and nations that can cause us harm. The service is born of a desire for the nation to always improve and become greater for our children than what we have lived. At times that service is flawed due to imperfect decisions or temporary political desire; flawed in how the execution is made not in the service provided. And we should honor that service.

9/11 is a remembrance that we all serve our nation in our own way. That our nation is great, filled with great people. That when we act the sum of our actions tend to be the right one. And that every American life is as important as our own.

Perhaps I’m rambling, but sometimes that’s just what we need. No point, no decisive goal to achieve. Just thoughts based on an act of evil, 7 years ago.

Presidential election 2008 priority issues

As the race for the Presidency of 2009 reaches its next stage I feel it’s important to go back over several issues that were ignored in the recent past. Issues have been broadcast for days and weeks now about the character of associates of the candidates, and race and gender. Yet most pundits and major news media have seemingly forgotten the issues in their never ending desire to promote their ratings.

So let me present the issues that I have noticed are truly important to the majority of Americans.

1. The war in Iraq.
No matter your opinion of how correct we were to get into the war in Iraq, America is fighting now. Placing blame on the past decisions has kept many busy, and used up valuable energy, but resolved nothing. The issue at hand is simply this; either we win or we run away.

If we run away, the results will include the instability of the region, the empowerment of Iran, an increase in the cost of oil, likely heightened threats against Israel, and inevitably attacks against Americans and America. When I say attacks against us I mean just that, terrorist acts on varying scales killing civilians in their homes and work on our soil. Because the various factions that take over Iraq in our absence will definitely (fairly and unfairly) blame every ill on America, and the orphaned sons and daughters will eventually be coerced to seek out and kill Americans.

Conversely if we go for the win we must commit more funds and resources, risk international disdain, and lose members of our military. Ultimately we will have to have a military base in Iraq, not unlike Japan or Germany. As much as ultra-liberals may like to misquote Senator McCain’s comment, it is likely that winning the war in Iraq will require our PRESENCE over the next several decades, with some portion of that time being in various levels of actual combat.

2. Education
There is little argument that the children in public schools today are dumber than the generations that preceded them. It may not be the nicest statement, but it is accurate. Children today are less creative, active, and deductive than perhaps since the start of the industrial revolution. They are being asked to memorize various facts, yet comprehension of those facts are at record lows. Fewer know what is in the Bill of Rights, can identify North America on a map, or how to properly structure a sentence. And this is while there is unprecedented access to the knowledge base found on the internet, and more instantaneous connectivity then ever before.

Kids today are being taught less and retaining bare minimums. While this may be most obvious in cities throughout the nation, it is a national event. The long term effects of this will be devastating to the nation.

3. Economy
While the unemployment levels are hardly at levels in the 70’s many are feeling like they have less money than in decades. Interest rates are incredibly low, yet tens of thousands are on the edged of losing their homes. Average wages are up from the past and discretionary spending is high (unless you count an iPod as essential) but the average person has $6,000 in credit card debt. Few feel secure in their jobs.

Considering that crude oil prices are brushing against my prior year high estimate, gasoline and winter heating oil prices are sure to hit millions hard. Add to that the higher cost of food due to ethanol production, and that glut levels are increasing with Federal production mandates, and you find consumers with less money than may have been planned. This says nothing of the potential inflation that may be caused with interest rates as low as they are.

The Presidential candidates have offered 2 different ideas. One is to take more money from taxpayers, the other to cut taxes. While the tax increase is stated to target only the “rich” such a definition is vague at best. Recent votes in Congress have included those making $31,850 or more for increased taxes of at least 3%. The tax cut is stated as being universal, with a goal of affecting the middle class primarily.

4. Safety
National safety from internal and external sources. While some would prefer to think that America is safe from future foreign attacks, the reality of the world is that we are not. Like the best of safes, eventually someone will break in and in like manner America will be attacked. Minimizing the nature and scope of such an attack is vital. A madman with a gun or suicide bomb is unsettling, but far less devastating than airplanes as weapons, a radioactive ‘dirty’ bomb, poisonous gas, or other mass attacks.

As far as I am aware, these are the most critical issues facing America. These are the questions that need to be answered by our next President. There are other issues but these seem to be the primary ones.

This is what we need to hear the candidates answer. This is the planning that we need to understand. These are the things that will provide us the best President for the nation.

Any other reason or issue is secondary in my opinion. Even worse, the attempts by the media to grab ratings distorts the answers we need to hear and blocks the things we need to know. Answers and plans.

As this final phase of the Presidential race continues I suggest we all keep these issues in mind.

Remember you only get one vote, and once you have you don’t get a do-over.

Canada and the NYC bombing - 3.7.2008.1

I’ve said it before and I will say it again. Is anyone paying attention to Canada? Specifically the border. Because, again, it seems that no one is.

On Thursday, some nutjob set off a bomb at the New York City recruiting station which has been in place since WWII. Obviously government agencies are looking at every angle on whom this idiot was and why they committed this act of terrorism. [Personally my first and recurring thoughts are that it’s one of the pathetic ungrateful members of Code Pink and/or the Berkley city council. They are all just loopy enough to do such an act and perversely think that this was a positive.]

Part of the investigation has led to an incident at the Canadian border roughly 1 month ago.

“They went over the facts: Two of four men in a car got out and tried to cross the border on foot; the authorities pursued them but did not catch them; when the car was inspected at the checkpoint, each of the four bags were found to have contained four foreign passports for four people. In one of the bags were those writings and photographs [anarchist writings and photographs of various spots around New York City — including the military recruiting station and the police station in Times Square], the official said.”

As of this writing, the above incident has been ruled as not connected to the NY bombing. So does anyone feel any more secure or confident about the incident? I surely don’t.

You may recall me stating

“But if we are to posture about security and claim a need to patrol and defend the southern border, no less attention needs to be directed at our neighbors to the north. And I would wager that if 17 were caught, many more have already crossed without incident.” – June 2006

or

“But how does a person who is flagged and sought after by the American government enter the nation? Through Mexico, crossing the border with illegal immigrants in the dead of night across difficult terrain? No, a casual drive over the northern border is all it takes.” – June 2007

Now we learn of people that were up to no good at the northern border. I mean they ran from authorities, had 12 passports, and pictures targeting spots in NYC.

And not one of them spoke spanish, or were descibed as Hispanics/Latinos. Amazing, unless you realize that the biggest threat to America is to our north not south.

In the past 3 years there was at least 17 terrorists, one biological idiot, and numerous people with fake documents and troubling photos all at the northern border. Name any threat to national security that entered from Mexico in the same time.

That does not mean that illegal aliens entering from the south are not an issue. The flow needs to be stemmed. But I at least believe that Canada is the waypoint for terrorists hoping to kill hunderds or thousands of Americans. And our elected officials seem not to care.

I hate to say it, but it may take an act that kills Americans and a live chase via helicopter cam crossing our border to the north with caucasian terrorists before the general public wakes up to the present and continuous threat. I pray such an event doesn’t happen, but it seems it’s the only way to be safe.

Maybe the bombing in New York wasn’t done by a sick, deranged, bastard that entered our nation via Canada this time. But that’s where the threats have been in the past, and eventually it will be where we will have to look in the future too.

Discussing retreat or fighting in Iraq Part 3 - 7.10.2007.3

Concluded from Discussing retreat or fighting in Iraq Part 2...

There is no simple solution to this situation. Blame covers virtually ever member of Congress and the Executive branch. The reasons for enacting this war, no matter how questionable today, have been supported by more than the majority of Congress up until the 2nd quarter of 2006. Even until the end of April 2007 the general consensus has been in support.

Partisan bickering has not resolved any of the issues involved. No effective plan has been offered as a counter to the existing one. No plan currently includes the probable outcomes 2 years or more down the road.

Anger at various officials has overshadowed the actual events ongoing. If President Bush were to be replaced by ANYONE at this moment, there still would be no better plan in place than what exists at this moment. In fact there would be less of a plan in place (based on the exact plans declared by virtually all the candidates to date) thus promoting chaos.

Emotion must be removed, as well as partisan election games, to reach an effective middle road. Extremes are ineffective and costly. Lack of planning is terrifying. We are America, better can be done.

This is what I think, what do you think?

Discussing retreat or fighting in Iraq Part 2 - 7.10.2007.2

Continued from Discussing retreat or fighting in Iraq Part 1...

Looking at the other side of this issue, we see those that wish to fight until all opposition is removed. Such an action requires the building of a colony or commonwealth. It would involved the complete takeover by the United States. Iraq would cease to be independent and fighting would continue for about 2 generations. This plan would require that America rebuild the entire nation. A new infrastructure, buildings, economy and education system would need to be created. Military bases would have to be installed. The cost to America would be enormous, with any return on the investments there not being seen for 5 years to a decade.

An immediate problem would be the response by moderate and liberal nations in the world. France as an example would likely be outraged by ‘actions in America that harkens back to imperialist empire-building.’ During the first 10 years at least there would be constant attacks on Iraq, with several nations (notably Iran) claiming that this was an attack on Islam. The loss of soldiers would increase roughly 10-fold over the first 10 years.

Given history, it would be expected that assimilation would begin after the generation raised with improved facilities (hospitals, schools, running water, ect) reached the age of 25, and began families of their own. By the second generation internal support of America would be high and the improved quality of life would draw more moderate individuals from neighboring countries. Stateside, there would be fewer attacks but they would be more severe, as the emphasis would be on destabilizing Iraq. Liberals in America would be enraged, and strong divisions in both political parties would emerge. Taxes would increase to offset the investment in Iraq, but economic returns would improve roughly 7-12 years after the start of this program.

As neither of these extremes is attractive, or viable, what alternative exists? There is no plan offered currently other than that of continued fighting. The current plan requires Iraq to stabilize it’s government, which is not happening. The near civil war in Iraq will likely take about a decade to resolve, with continued U.S. support. Current strategies will continue the slow loss of American soldiers and high cost of fighting. Within 2 years taxes will have to be increased to cover the cost. The strain on the economy will be increased, and corporations will seek to gouge business in Iraq to make up for the risk and protracted cost.

Without U.S. support, actual civil war will occur, with Iran and several other nations supporting various groups in the fighting. The Middle East will have higher tensions, oil prices will go up. Hundreds of thousands will die. Likely an autocratic if not theocratic government will be formed and tens of thousand will be jailed in response to having aided the U.S. efforts or those of other groups. The children that lost family, as well as grown adults will be convinced that America was the cause of the current ills, and that they are worse than the subjugation of Saddam Hussein and the Baath party. Within 7 years, recruits to Al Quida and similar groups will triple to a 5-fold increase. Within 2 years of a gradual loss of U.S. support, without a strong central government, America will have a major attack, with several minor attacks similar to those that have occurred in England happening before and after the main attack.

Continued in Part 3...