12 predictions for 2010

Written by Michael Vass

What way better to start the new year than by making a prediction? Considering the mid-term elections later this year, the Bills facing Congress, and the uncertainty of the economy it seems like this is a great time to make an educated guess.

So without further ado I present the 12 predictions I expect to see in some form and degree in 2010. I must add though that I do hope to be wrong on several of these predictions.



What do you think? Let me know at VASS

News media ignores politics at what cost to you?

You know, of the many things that disturb me about the current Administration and the Democrat-led Congress, the most scary has to be the lack of attention being given to their actions by the major media. Seriously, since the election of President Obama the media has fallen asleep at the wheel. At least if you compare the coverage and criticism given to the last 5 Presidents and Congresses.

Take for example the flip-flop of President Obama. He has stated repeatedly that the Government is not in the business of running various private businesses. Yet he has ensured the firing of a CEO of a car company, taken ownership positions in dozens of banks and 2 automakers, and has traded bailouts for ownership in multiple industries. Which says nothing of the mandates on how several of these once private businesses are going to be run. Yet the media is quiet.

Then there is the on-going flimflam of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. She has gone from stating that she always opposed torture and waterboarding, to have been found to have been aware and silent about the aggressive interrogations, to denying knowledge, to deflecting the nature and degree of her knowledge. She has even gone so far as to accuse the CIA of lying – though she still has yet to officially form a single complaint of their supposed actions. Which stinks of covering her ass as she is caught playing polispeak and sucking up to polls. Yet the major news media downplays the entire event.

Hell, the major news media has all but ignored the most obvious of actions by the Obama Administration and the Democrats. I mean President Obama directly told the American public he is going to virtually triple the national debt with his budget, and the major news media didn’t blink. He directly looked out at America and said he is going to spend some $63 billion dollars a year on a healthcare plan, that does not even exist in an outline – and the major media looked away. And when the Democrat-led Congress violated the Constitution by enacting retro-active penalties and destroying the power of contracts, the news media sat quiet.

How is it that all these things are happening in the Government and the news media that loved to assault President Bush is so impotent today? Why would they allow this?

Perhaps the fact that the major news media companies spent millions to elect President Obama has something to do with this. Perhaps the fact that the downtrend in traditional media sources has accelerated with the bad economy, and thus now has them on the line for the next set of bailouts is a factor. Or maybe they just want to be a part of the groups controlling the direction that the Government is taking.

No matter which way you look at it, the result is the same. The general public is being distracted with arguments about American Idol, as liberties and laws are being subverted. This is all in the name of the greater good, but such is the path to Hell paved.

You can’t even say that they are acting in the best interest of the nation, because when President Bush made decisions with America potentially under threat of imminent attack the news media pounded him at ever turn. So it may be more fair to say that they are acting in the best interest of their profits, and political power base, as opposed to the benefit of the nation.

Politics has not been a major issue of popularity in this nation since the late 70’s. And as interest has waned, the size and reach into private lives of the Government has grown. Which is always a bad thing. But it is far worse when the people that are supposed to be helping the public are busy trying to help themselves.

None can serve 2 masters, and do so well. The media is no different. Their division in primary goals lead them to lose ground to the internet. Now they have focused on one purpose, self-preservation at all costs. They have rallied under the banner of Democrats, at an unknown cost to you and me.

Some may think I am making too much of all this. Some may think this is minor. But I will ask you this. If any of these things occurred under President Bush, do you in all honesty think that the major news media would have sat back and said nothing? Since that answer is no, why is it a good thing that they are quiet now?

Chrysler - the bad bet of President Obama

You know what's really sad about the economy? What really angers me about the bailouts? The way that the Obama Administration, Congress, and the Bush Administration have all wasted our money.

Yes even the anointed President Barack Obama is complicit in the waste of money that has been the bailouts and stimulus package. While President Bush started this waterfall of taxpayer money, and Congress has failed in every respect on these matters, President Obama has jumped in with both feet on making this a costly mistake since day 1.

Chrysler has now declared bankruptcy. They told America they would back in November of 2008 when they didn't get the full bailout they requested, along with the rest of the U.S. automakers. Rather than allowing the automakers to do the inevitable, the Government has thrown away our money in amounts that are near incomprehensible. Chrysler alone is responsible for some $10 billion of our money that will now not only fail to send our kids to school, or buy new homes, or build new businesses, but has effectively vaporized.

Of course there will be a cheer from Democrats since the American Government now owns 8% of Chrysler. What a bargain. They paid more than top dollar for a miniscule percentage of ownership, that currently is worthless. But don't worry, the Government can always buy more with your taxes and printing as much money as it wants. Your kid didn't need college anyway.

This is not a joke. I'm being serious. President Obama announced to the nation, along with Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, that the only way to save American jobs and fend off a depression was to keep the automakers out of bankruptcy. That was a big part of the $1.29 trillion that President Obama spent in the first 100 days. Yet bankruptcy is what has happened.

Can you imagine $10 billion dollars? Does it make sense? Imagine a stack of dollar bills that reaches to the moon and back, with lots of money left over. That's how much money just disappeared.

Had the Democrat leadership just said no, and allowed the car makers to fail there would be that much more money available to help people survive this outcome. There would be that much money ready to help new smaller businesses to pick up the pieces of the failed companies and create new jobs and innovation. But the Government knows better than you or I. The Government can manage everything better - though facts to the contrary abound.

Think about this. If the Government is wrong about the billions it gave Chrysler, which has been proven by the bankruptcy, what else is it wrong about? That a depression will not be the outcome of this action? That they wasted more of our money on bad ideas than AIG, the automakers, and most of the major banks combined? That the total of the Congress and the President have less knowledge and acumen in the world of business than your local paperboy?

Each of the political parties is culpable in this mess. They all have played their part in creating this fiasco over the past two decades at least. But I must say that all the polispeak of President Obama stands out the most. Because the buck stops at the President, and his assurances are the ones that have failed the biggest right now.

I am pissed off because of in my forced ownership of Chrysler (via the bailouts using my cash like yours), I gain nothing. Had I made the choice of what to do with my money, I would have kept it in my pocket. Or gone out to a small dinner and helped the economy. Or added it to my investments (though future taxes on those investments would surely be more than the some of money I started with). I might even had given it to charity (though the tax on that gift might have been more than my charitable gift now that President Obama raised the taxes on that too).

Simply put, the President and the Democrat-led Congress made a bad bet. If they were a publicly run corporation I'd have shorted their stock long ago. But instead of their stock price going down, national unemployment is continuing to rise, my tax bill is increasing, I'm paying a mortgage of other Americans on top of my own mortgage, and I get to fear for my ability to maintain just what I have. Because they made their bets with my money, and yours.

This will no doubt be spun to blame everyone but the current Administration and Congress. There will be no end to the flowery views of future green cars and some abundant productivity in the future. But the fact staring us all in the face is that all those dreams would have been just as true, and likely, without an extra $10 billion in debt for the nation.

The first 100 days of President Obama

So we have made it thru the first 100 days under President Obama. The nation is still called America. This is still a democracy. The public, and more importantly the major media, still love President Obama. But this is no longer the nation that I grew up in.

There have been many changes under the Obama Administration, some due to the President and other due to the Democrat-led Congress. All of the changes have been based in the goals of the far-left and selected campaign promises.

Let's start with the appointees. There are many critical Cabinet positions that have yet to be filled. Several have had a revolving door of nominees, leaving some of the most critical positions that effect the economy open. Worse yet, there has been an undeniable consistency that virtually every Democratic nominee has failed to pay taxes, in some cases for multiple years, until nominated. Which is troubling in a "Do as I say, not as I do" kind of way.

But beyond the appointees are other troubles.

President Obama has failed to live up to many of his campaign promises. The Guantanamo Bay Detention will be closed, eventually, though there is mass confusion on what to do with the detainees. Will some be imprisoned in American jails. If so at what higher cost than normal. If not in America then to where? So far only France has accepted exactly 1 detainee. So much for international support and their belief in President Obama.

President Obama has failed to increase transparency on 7 of 9 major laws since taking the Oval Office. This too was a campaign promise that was broken. The most notable case of this was the $787 billion stimulus bill. A stimulus package that does not spend all the money now, that limits the income level of those that can use it, that applies only to citizens that RECEIVE a paycheck, and is primarily a tool of social change.

There are numerous examples of millions being spent on projects like artwalks, skate parks, and non-existent homeless projects in cities without homeless problems. All of these are attributable to the stimulus package, and the fact that to this date almost none of the members of any level of the Government has read the full law. In fact almost no member of Congress or the White House read the entire bill before it was voted on and approved by Democrats. Nor did the public get a chance to read it before President Obama passed it into law. The reverberations of this are still being felt now.

Moving on, President Obama has enforced the ability to gain an abortion, even in later term pregnancies. Which is in line with his long-standing political beliefs, though not exactly the beliefs of the nation at large.

President Obama has approved the use of embryonic stem cells, another issue that flies in the face of overall public opinion.

President Obama allowed Congress to break the Constitution by retro-actively penalizing American citizens. This was in the form of specific and non-grandfathered taxes to the executives at AIG. These taxes were on bonuses that the executives received as part of their contract, that the Government did not renegotiate when they had the chance, and in fact guaranteed in the stimulus package that no one read. The Congressman that guaranteed the money? Senator Chris Dodd, a Democrat and in charge of the Banking Committee.

Also, while violating the Constitution - which President Obama taught at one point - the concepts of all contracts were broken. In violating the contracts that the Government itself assured, all contracts are theoretically void. Because if the Government can break one it can break them all.

Plus the Government asserted its ability to control private business. First in taxing the AIG executive, thus stating the Government can retro-actively dictate pay. Then in forcing the removal of the CEO of a major auto company, while demanding changes to the operations of that company along lines that only the Government desired.

All this before the Government requested the expansion of power to allow the Treasury Secretary, an un-elected position, the ability to take over any company that it deems is significant to the nation based on undefined criteria. Which if passes will allow the Government to theoretically take control of any and all companies it chooses to.

But President Obama has done more. He has ended the Iraq War, by removing troops (a campaign promise) in an extended timeframe with the exception of 50,000 troops (both violations of the same campaign promise).

President Obama has also proposed his new budget. This is separate of the $410 billion continuation bill that was passed, also funding 9,000 pork-barrel projects. It was passed the same day that President Obama made a public outcry to stop wasteful spending by the Government. And it violated a campaign promise to end pork-barrel spending.

But the $3.6 trillion dollar budget of President Obama does not include the continuation bill or the stimulus package. It does include some $600 billion for a nationalized healthcare plan, that does not exist today nor have any plans of how it might be implemented. And this budget, going by President Obama's own best case figures will reduce the budget by 50% in 4 years. This part has been highly publicized. What has not been publicized is the rest of the budget plan.

President Obama's budget goes on after year 4 for a total of 10 years. By the end of that time, according to the President himself, the deficit will have increased by 250%. Few in the major media discuss this outcome, nor question how any plan that creates a larger deficit than it starts with can be called positive or effective.

But like every Administration, there have been bumps in the road. Besides the appearance that no appointee in the Obama Cabinet pays their taxes, while demanding that citizens must do so in greater numbers, there have been other gaffes. Like the recent decision to fly a plane over New York City without notification of the Mayor or any public notification - creating a panic based on the 9/11 events. There has also been the bow that President Obama bestowed - which has been described as everything but what your eyes will see in the video. There is the publicly friendly, and privately harsh, discussion with Hugo Chavez. There was the embarrassing gifts to our strongest ally's leadership and monarchy.

Yes the Obama Administration has had a hit parade. And these are only the most public and notable points. There are many other quieter, even less publicized actions affecting law and governance, and the appearance of the nation.

Like the now unspoken manner in which North Korea essentially turned it's nose up to the U.S. and fired a rocket that in one move threatened our ally Japan, and our nation itself. This cemented the fact that America has less respect and instills less fear than ever before on the world stage. An idea confirmed as our Secretary of State, and President, issued apologies for the existence of America and our actions to continue to exist.

Yet on the domestic side of the table things are even more unstable. America now fights terrorists, and the ideal of terrorism, by giving it a new name. The idea must be that there cannot be a terrorist act if the Government cannot call anyone a terrorist. That is except of Americans themselves.

Yes, because the Government - in the guise of Napalitano - has sought to isolate those that disagree with the governance of the land. Those that hold ideologies separate of the Administration, that have vowed to defend this nation with their life, and/or those that believe a religion strongly have been placed at the top of the list of dangers to America. Quietly, and without public scrutiny. The Amish and bloggers like myself be warned.

This is but the briefest coverage of the first 100 days of the Obama Administration. Likely each point will be something ignored by the major media. Yet it is these things that define where America is truly going. And doing so with smiles. President Obama's approval rating is over 60%.

So though this has been used to describe President Bush, I think it more directly applies to the America that President Obama is shaping

"So this is how Democracy ends. With thunderous applause." - Princess Amidala in Star Wars Episode 3

But if the poll on my sites are correct, Democrats had best watch the clock carefully. Because their time in the sun may well be short. My poll results state that since the inauguration the total outlook by my readers that responded are

39% feel President Obama has kept his promises and is doing a great job
38% feel President Obama has BROKEN his promises and is doing a horrible job
16% feel they need more time to decide
13% feel President Obama is the same as any other President

My poll may be small, but I believe that my readers are some of the most informed, intelligent in the blogosphere (well overwhemingly most are minus the ones that shout profanities), and those from America are real representations of America. Thus I would state that this is the real view middle America holds.

So in summary, President Obama promised change. He never clarified what that meant or what he would change. After 100 days we now have an indication. It is a change indeed. Though none I know would have voted for this.

Thankfully we will have the mid-term elections soon, and might be able to reverse or hold off the worst of that change.

President Obama - The economy has glimmers of improvement

Lately President Obama has been commenting on the positives in the economy. It’s a huge reversal of the absolutely impending doom that he has virtually preached before and after his inauguration. But the big question is if it is true.

Is the economy better? Did any of the things that the Obama Administration pushed forward helped? When will joe average feel more confident?

All good questions, but there is no clear answer so far.

If you look at the economy as a whole you get mixed answers. Looking at NY State I can say that I am aware of a huge mixed bag. There are several businesses that have folded just this month, or are looking to sell right now. This is in part the fault of the overall economy, but also has to do with all the new taxes that Gov. Patterson is enacting. It just costs too much to do business here, especially in a bad economy.

A great example is the fact that over the last 30 days sales of potato chips and snack foods for a large multinational chain have plummeted to all-time lows from Buffalo to Syracuse. Is that a reaction to the new food tax that Gov. Patterson has recently proposed? Add to that the fact that cigarette sales have now jumped as well, costing about $7 on average in Binghamton alone. Which flies in the face of the fact that a 15 minute drive provides cigarette buyers a roughly 35% discount if they cross the border and buy cigarettes in Pennsylvania. How much do you think the higher costs will help NY business owners?

Consider that while there are some businesses that are expanding, they tend to be larger businesses. The smaller private businesses that provide most of the jobs for the local economies are just dropping off the radar, leaving other connected businesses with nothing but a debit in their accounting. The ratio is such that for every job that is generated somewhere around 3 or 4 are being lost.

So is that an improving economy? Jobs are being created, but is the cost too high? And can any local or even federal economy survive such a discrepancy when even the most mundane products are encountering dramatic downturns?

And then there is the banking sector. We have banks that took Government bailout money, even if they didn’t need it (to have a hedge), that now are being strangled by Government intervention. New regulations are being required that are obtuse at best. Which is preventing banks from providing loans to businesses that normally would have been provided.

A recent conversation I had concluded

'We have these guys in the Government. They have never worked in finance. They don’t understand making a loan or stock market operations. But they are the ones making regulations on how to make a loan or oversee the stock market. What do they know about it? Nothing. But they are the ones overseeing everything, bogging down what works and flooding everything with what doesn’t work.'

Consider this, the Government is so far up banking that even if a bank that took public funds wants to pay back every dime and interest, the Government won’t accept it. That is part of the provisions of the stimulus plan that was passed without anyone, especially Congress, reading it. Government is imposing regulations that they themselves don’t understand, nor can comprehend the impact of. Government is actively demanding business transactions that have no proven benefit (like the demand for hybrid cars though the market is immature and still developing). All the while it is imposing new taxes that impede business growth, and/or increase the cost to the end consumer - like new taxes on energy that directly affects the end user and increasing taxes on businesses and investments limiting growth.

So is the economy really improving? Or is it just getting a polispeak political shuffle that makes some aspects look impressive while diverting attention from long-term problems. I once offered the example of lowering the average Americans debt, just as President Obama has offered to lower the national debt. No one that I presented this scenario to found it to be worthwhile, yet the Obama Administration's budget plans continue without discourse or change. How can this make sense?

Window dressing is great. The President finally speaking about the economy in terms that do not sound like chicken little is a bonus. But the long-term impact is something far more murky and glum.

If the current actions in New York State are any indication, the rollercoaster ride is hardly over. The worst of what is to come is far more dire than what we are being presented. True consumer confidence is still at arms reach, in the best case.

Take that all into consideration the next time you hear that the economy is glimmering with improvement. Because all that glitters is not gold.

Don't blink, Democrats might have paused on spending your money

Perhaps the most stunning news to be announced since President Obama won the election has just been made. It has nothing to do with global warming, creating green energy, or nationalized healthcare. It has nothing to do with the growing problems with China, Iran, or Afghanistan. But it does deal with the monumental spending that has occurred since the beginning of the year.

For the first time since Democrats have overtaken the Congress there is going to be some restraint in the spending spree. Yes, that is shocking. Said by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi herself, the Democrats might not spend even more money just because they can. Amazing.

This of course is in reference to the possibility of a second stimulus package (the first best described as the ‘Obama gift to liberals’). The mere concept of which denotes the complete failure of the first Obama stimulus package.

“I really would like to focus on the first one," Pelosi told reporters. "I think it's important that the American people and the Congress of the United States have confidence in the recovery package that we have passed.”

Yes confidence. Like the confidence that Representative Barney Frank, Chairman since 2007 of the Financial Services Committee – which he has been part of since 1981, had in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

“Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee since 2007, characterized Fannie Mae (Stock Quote: FNM) and Freddie Mac (Stock Quote: FRE) as "fundamentally sound financially" at a hearing in September 2003, as the two entities went through major accounting scandals. Frank also said he didn't want "the same kind of focus on safety and soundness" on Fannie and Freddie as other financial firms and preferred to "roll the dice a little bit more" to support subsidized housing.”

Or the confidence of Senator Chris Dodd – member of the Senate Banking Committee for 25 years and Chairman since 2007 –

“Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), chairman of the Senate Committee of Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs since 2007, called Fannie and Freddie "one of the great success stories of all time" at another hearing in 2004, noting that they brought homeownership levels up to 70% of the American populace. As recently as last July, Dodd called the two entities "viable" institutions that were "fundamentally, fundamentally strong."

Or the confidence you might feel when President Obama states that his economic plans (blunders in my mind) will “save OR create 3.5 million jobs”[emphasis added by me]. A statement that is factually impossible to prove. In addition to being polispeak for ‘my ass is covered no matter what happens’ – in my opinion.

The confidence these critical lawmakers display is awe inspiring, if you happen to be an anarchist or stock market bear. This is especially true when you consider that Democrats waited for a Democrat President to be in office before spending $410 billion on keeping the Government afloat – including 9000 earmarks that President Obama directly stated in his campaign to be elected would be checked line by line to avoid wasteful spending.

Yes you can feel very confident that either President Obama lied to the American public, is impotent before a Democrat led Congress, or that both the President and Congress just don’t care how much they spend as long as they can get everything they have wished for in the past 30 years - to the tune of $3.5 trillion just for this years budget.

What else could explain the $787 billion dollar stimulus package that neither stimulates new businesses, encourages job growth, nor provides an incentive for Americans to buy anything. But that same package does wonders for just about every liberal goal and social engineering agenda you can name.

But it seems that for the moment Democrats have paused on the all-out spend at every turn mentality that is the hallmark of the Obama Administration so far. I feel as if I just won the lottery.

Neil Cavuto dicusses the economy on the O' Reilly Factor

Neil Cavuto is a smart guy. There just isn’t a question about that. When it comes to the economy and stock investing, Bill O’ Reilly is out of his league. That was perhaps never more apparent than in the following video of the O’ Reilly Factor.



But the biggest thing I found in this video clip is the fact that President Obama has lied to the American public. And he is getting away with it.

President Obama stated he had a plan for the economic crisis back in late November, but we have yet to hear it. He stated that he would cut wasteful spending, yet he is approving of a spending bill with 9,000 earmarks. He stated that he would only go after the rich, yet his stimulus package excludes those over $75,000. And he stated that he would be open to comments and thoughts, yet he is actively ignoring the stock market and unknown numbers of investors.

President Obama has an agenda. He had it before the economic crisis, and before the election. He continues to follow thru with that agenda, even as it costs tens of thousands of jobs and the retirement of millions of Americans. That should concern more people than it is.

Neil Cavuto may seem harsh, or grim as O’Reilly states, but in fact he is being honest. I learned a long time ago as a stock broker, that is the least liked response. Even when you are dead-on correct.

When I spoke about the problems of Citigroup over a year ago, I was told I was stupid. When I discussed more than a year ago my fears for the economy, I was told I could not understand the big picture. Look it up, the facts are in black and white. So I understand how Cavuto feels.

The fact is that President Obama has neither given a reason, nor a soundbite to encourage investment in the market. He has ignored the well-being of millions of Americans today, with the promise of a better future for some in the unknown future. And according to polls right now, the public loves him for it.

People hate Bill O’Reilly when he points out the short-coming of President Obama. People hate Neil Cavuto for pointing out the ineffectiveness of the economic plans of Democrats right now (and Republicans when they were in office). And people just tell me they hate me of a list of reasons, avoiding any commentary on what I have actually said and/or gotten right.

What does that say about America? That we are so busy drinking sand and hiding our heads that reason is beyond us. The people that are going to pay for this is more than just homeowners like myself that are paying their bills and soon to be paying those of others. Our children, and soon their grand-children will be paying for the agenda of President Obama and the Democrat-led Congress.

I hope that President Obama saw this video, if not the actual program. I hope people around the nation saw this. Because at some point the Government needs to act as if they have a concern.

President Obama thinks stock market is a good deal he doesn't care about

There is nothing like watching the daily polispeak dance that politicians like to do. It is especially interesting when the dance is being done by the President. Few Presidents are as skillful with polispeak as President Obama, which says a lot.

I mean just look at how President Obama has handled the complete meltdown of the stock market. The Dow Jones Index, along with virtually every stock on any exchange, have nosedived down a vortex nearly every day since he was elected. But this is considered merely “day-to-day gyrations” that are of no consequence.

An almost total freefall, some 26% since the first trading day of 2009, is a minor happenstance. This is hardly worth talking about in the view of the President. And if you must speak about it, it is all the fault of the prior administration.

Of course President Obama started talking to the markets and the nation months before he was inaugurated. He was dictating economic policy and outlining his initiatives well over 60 days before he was sworn in. And he has effected economic policy changes as well as given somewhat direct guidance on what steps he plans to take in these troubled times. But the current effects on the economy have nothing to do with his Administration.

I mean let’s just look at what he has done so far.

His Secretary of Treasury has gotten the remaining $350 billion dollars from the Bush mortgage bailout. There has been no word on how that money is going to be spent, if it has not been already, but he has the access to it.

He let the Democrat-led Congress loose on a stimulus package that swelled from the day he was elected (then a mere $50 billion dollars) to the final passage of $787 billion dollars. The package is all money borrowed from the nation to be repaid by taxpayers with interest in the future. But everyone who receives a paycheck will be able to make an extra $13 a week for 4 months – if they are under the class of rich which is $75,000 for individuals.

But besides the non-lump sum of $400, the public is also paying for honey bee research ($100 million), and moving Government Agencies at $500 million a move, and research to find a way to create usable green energy (~10 billion dollars - just to find a way to make it, not a dime to actually implement it since it does not exist and may not for a decade), and $100 million for moving fish barriers in mid-West rivers among hundreds of other spending programs.

All of this is to ensure that the roughly 500,000 people who were laid off from Circuit City and almost every other major private sector company in January alone will still have a job. I’m not sure how since I doubt most people have degrees in biology, physics, engineering, and so on, but he said it so it must be true.

President Obama also told the world that he was going to increase the tax on investments in the stock market. Because the fact that interest rates are too low to invest in bonds was not enough. Plus he intends to tax the hell out of those able to afford to invest. So you can understand why the world has rushed in to invest in our markets.

But in case anyone just wanted to hold onto their cash, President Obama is authorizing the Government to essentially take over banks. This way the Government can ensure that loans are made – as well as who will receive them (by the way, isn’t that part of the reason we are in this mess?). Plus the Government can be right on hand to wherever people are putting their money.

But lest you try to give away your money, to charity, the Government under President Obama has another answer. The taxes are to increase on donations. Thus you can give away all your money to a charity, and still owe the Government a huge sum of money. Because under President Obama the Government is smarter than the public and will decide where your money should go and who can receive it. Even though the Government can’t balance a checkbook and most of the public can.

Still just in case any money is not accounted for the Obama Administration has a plan. By increasing the cost of energy, like gasoline and electricity, with taxes they can scoop up more money. Even though this means the price of filling up a car, heating a home, buying food or any other consumer item will increase as well. But remember the Government gave everyone getting a paycheck an extra $13 dollars a week for 4 months to cover the cost of everything going up. If you make under $75.000 and thus not rich.

Yes, all of this. Yet the stock market has continued to sell off like a waterfall. Why should anyone be concerned. It’s not like the stock market is a forward indicator of the economy.

Still, just to cover his tracks, President Obama is now talking like he cares about the IRA’s, mutual funds, stock investments and retirement funds of tens of millions of Americans. He has now stated that “buying stocks is a potentially good deal”. Isn’t that great!

Oh I can see the crowds forming a line to just jump into the markets, with money left over from I know not where. Considering the prospects he has laid out, it’s easy to see how you can make all of 10% - before taxes and commissions – in about 2 years. That’s only a LOSS of maybe 20% after taxes and commissions. Why wouldn’t anyone want to get on that train.

And that loss should coincide perfectly with the $2 trillion in spending cuts President Obama plans to make, if he does not continue with his plans to spend $3.5 trillion on the national budget. Plus every projection he has made – that his own economists think are improbable – comes true exactly as he has stated they should.

Polispeak is a wonderful thing. Because after stating all these things, driving away investors and making every industry of business cringe, President Obama maintains a 64% approval rating. Just watch him dance

Where is the bottom?

Over the past several days I have been asked two questions over and over. Where is the bottom, and where would I invest? They are difficult questions, and I don’t have great answers.

It has taken the market 4 months to reach the lower target for the Dow Jones that I called for on November 18th 2008. Once it reached that point I expected another 500 point drop, which took a week. At this point some 55% of my predictions from last year have happened. And that is a conservative estimate.

Since that time I have spoken with many former stockbrokers, business owners, and investors. And from all these discussions, the political environment, and what I believe, I can say the following with confidence in my mind.

The Dow will flounder between 7100 and 6600 for as long as the next 9 months.
Any upside movement in the market will be temporary.
If any global political events heat up in the next 9 months, things may get far worse.
Gold and oil will run sharply first.
A major bank will fail.

Since the start of 2009, the Dow Jones Index has lost 20% of its value. This was predicated on a liberal Democrat taking office as President, a Democrat-run Congress, the addition of $800 billion (not including interest but rounding up slightly) in spending called a stimulus package, and the fact that some $350 billion of authorized bailout is pending use.

None of this is a positive for the economy. Every large investor and institution could see that. I believe that major investors took the time from October until December to pull out most assets from the market. December was a time when small investors entered the market, and some short seller closed their positions. Which led to an artificial rise in the markets, seen by small investors and some media as confidence in President Obama.

From Jan. 2nd and on (at the latest), I believe large investors have shorted the market – if not just before that time. I believe that they foresee little opportunity for an investment over the next 18 months. Bonds are worthless at these interest rates (especially if inflation grows even half as some expect). Corporations are troubled by negative growth for at least 2 more quarters, and the continuing credit squeeze. Thus stocks are inadvisable, generally.

But I do not see large shorts to close their positions yet. They are waiting for a signal from the Oval Office and Congress. IF the Obama Administration goes forward with creating a nationalized healthcare, costing tens of billions of dollars to start, and Congress goes forward with the currently whispered 2nd stimulus (of the Obama Administration), then the shorts will increase and the Dow will go far lower.

The result of continued spending is that tax rates for the “wealthy” and corporations must increase. Where else will the money come from? And wealthy is a relative term. Because as the just passed stimulus package has made clear $75,000 for singles and $150,000 of couples is the threshold. And since corporate taxes were promised to increase 10% during the Presidential campaign, that cuts the current profits. Including transaction costs and taxes, the Dow would need to go down roughly 800 more points to give a decent net profit. If the cost of the Government is increased the assurance of who will pay grows exponentially.And thus the profit needed must as well.

But a friend mentioned something interesting to me. The market is always wrong at the top and bottom. With maybe some 90% of the market negative currently, we must be near or at capitulation. Which I agree with. Except normally at the top or bottom of a market there is an obvious near or mid-term expectation. There is none now.

There is virtually no sector of the market that can be observed to have an obvious benefit under the current political plans. Nor in the current private markets. Thus there is no area for capitulation to rush forward to. Thus it will not happen.

When the markets do reach the profit point of acceptance, and close their positions, where will they invest?

It is my expectation that the safest and smartest positions to create are in oil and gold. Only in those 2 arenas are we able to see assured continuous demand. Every other sector is questionable on time and return. Especially in this political environment.

There are companies in these sectors, or related ones, like Alcoa that trade at below book value now. This is an interesting value. But expectation of near-term growth is null. Yet at some point the vital raw goods will be needed, and demand plus speculation must drive the prices higher. And as that price rises, without another sector to compete with any real assurance, there will be a run – latter to be followed by another crash in those sectors.

At the very best, I expect some sectors of the market to show better than expected numbers in the 3rd quarter. Those that took short positions and closed out long positions in mid-2008 might have the same result for the 2nd quarter, but that will be far fewer companies than in the 3rd quarter.

This is a recipe for very flat to downward trends in the market.

Still there is hope. But it takes a lot of patience, building of positions in small steps, and no expectation of a reward (ie a return of 15 – 25%) for 18 to 30 months from now.

There is my answer. Take it as you will.

Dow Jones at 7600 - what I said, right and wrong

Back on November 18, 2008 I made a prediction. I said that in the first quarter the Dow Jones Index will hit 7600. I then proceeded to explain why it will do this and what will be happening. With the Dow having crossed my target I will reflect on what I said then.

“…auto makers are now first in line to ask for their own bailout,… And Congress will likely pony up the money for each of them.”

In fact the auto makers asked Congress for $50 billion dollars. As a surprising move, probably meant to give citizens the impression that Congress has some idea of what it is doing, the auto makers only received $15 billion.

Keep in mind that like the credit bailout, auto makers claimed at the time that the entire amount was needed or they would fail. To date the auto makes have not failed (though they have laid off workers, which was inevitable) nor has the economy though less than all the funds requested have been used.

“So far a 2nd stimulus plan is being conceived, growing from an initial hidden $50 billion, to $150 to $300, and now is being speculated at $500 billion dollars. Nancy Pelosi doesn’t just screw up, she does it with swings to the bleachers.”

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi not only hit the bleachers, she hit it out of the park. The stimulus package is being signed by President Obama today at the eye-popping total of $787 billion. But only Democrats think there is no waste in the stimulus.

“This means that New York City will get crushed this year.”

So far the budget of New York State is so bad that Gov. Patterson is in the process of taxing citizens based on weight. And who knows what will be next, but be assured the State is in severely bad condition.

“President Obama will get inaugurated and the Dow will drop 500 points.”

In fact the Dow dropped every day from the start of 2009. On the inauguration the Dow jones Index dropped 337 points. Not the 500 I expected, but close enough.

“Oil prices should stabilize at around $65 - $70 per barrel to start the year…”

I am completely wrong. They are currently at about $37 a barrel of crude oil. The economic crisis is keeping demand way down, and so far oil is not being used as an alternative investment.

“Gold and precious metals should all increase dramatically in a similar manner to that of 2008.”

As of today, Gold hit $973.80 an ounce. It is within $36 of an all-time high, set last year.

“Growth in China will likely stall as well, especially since the boost from the Olympics will have faded.”

The World Bank has stated that real exports will be down 7.5% in 2009 (at 3.5% versus 11% in 2008) and the growth in that nation will slow to 7.5%, or down 1.9% from 2008.

“Taxes will increase roughly 3% on all income groups.”

Wrong so far, but just wait for it.

“Several mid-sized financials will fail, blame will go to short-sellers and corporate greed.”

Expectations are that this is on the horizon.

“Confidence in the U.S. Treasuries will weaken, and several nations will begin to sell in hopes of buying national debt of England and a few isolated nations.”

Thankfully I am wrong on this so far. I pray to remain incorrect. But there is no reason for any nation to buy Treasuries at below 5%. It’s just not worth it.

“Unemployment will hit a 20 year high, again raising fears of a depression.”

I cannot count the number of times Democrats, and President Obama, have stated we are in or about to be in a depression. Call it fear mongering if you want to be honest, but it’s a daily statement without question.

Unemployment recently broke a 28 year record.

“Iran and Russia will take aggressive stances in the world stage.”

They have been blustering a bit of late. But they have not taken a full-blown aggressive stance. Yet.

“If I am as correct as I was in 2008, then 60 - 70% of what I have said will occur, though not exactly in my timeframe.”

Well looking at it empiracally I would say that I have got it about 55% right so far. The 1st quarter isn’t over yet either. World politics can shift in a minute, so that might push up my percentages at any time. And honestly I don’t what the rest of what I expected to come true. It would mean devestation to millions.

I will stand by a though I made at that time as well though. I expect things to get a bit worse and hold through the second quarter. But given I had no idea what the stimulus package would entail, nor such a enormous wasteful pricetag I will ammend my thoughts.

The 2nd half of 2009 will be just as bad, if not worse than the first half. There is no stimulus in the stimulus package. There is nothing to preserve or create jobs. No sound person would use any of the paltry amounts the stimulus will provide to do anything but save, pay bills, or watch evaporate if gas and/or oil prices move up at all.

At this point I would imagine gold hitting $1150, crude oil eventually getting back to about $60 (mostly through alternative investment speculation and production cutbacks). I fear but expect unemployment to hit 10% by the end of the year. The 4th quarter will be horrible. Inflation will likely run 3% higher. The Dow Jones Index can be expected to drp another 500 and stabilze there over the next few months.

Again I will say that I hope I am wrong. I want to be completely wrong by the end of the year. I want to laugh at what I expected with tears of joy. But I doubt it.

I’m at 55% and we are only in the middle of the 2nd month of the year. With a liberal Democrat President, a Democrat-led Congress that is headed by 2 of the most incompetent (in my opinion) politicians in decades, and expectations of spending that might have been called astronomical only a few years ago.

But we will see. Do let me know what you think.

Ready or not, the spending will come

Well it’s good to be back home. You may have noticed I was gone, the joy of filing taxes is all I will say.

And on that subject let’s take a look at the final stimulus package that has been rammed through Congress. This is not a bi-partisan package. It’s not even a package that is considerate of the needs of the nation. This is a rushed conglomeration of Democrat spending hopes of the last several years.

Looking at the facts for a moment we see exactly what is happening. This started as a $50 billion dollar pipe dream of the frugal House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Once it was clear that President Obama had won, and Democrats owned the Congress, it swelled to $800 billion, in about a week. But what does it do for you and me?

Well from July to the end of the year those making a paycheck will receive $13 a week, up to $400 for an individual, if you make less than $75,000. Let the spending begin. In most of New York State that equates to 2 packs of cigarettes (excluding New York City) or a 1 pound package of chop meat, a loaf of bread, a container of instant coffee, and a package of cheese. Put another way its roughly 4 – 5 gallons of gasoline. Yet another way, it is not enough to pay any single bill you might have. And that will stimulate the economy.

Mind you that this is an absolute necessity. The economy will fall into a depression if you don’t get the extra $13 dollars a week. Just as the $700 billion for the banking bailout had to be passed or the economy would fail (ignore that fact that only $350 billion was spent of the immediate need for it all, much of it wasted, and the economy has not fallen into a depression). Not to mention the $50 billion that the U.S. auto makers absolutely needed to have before the end of the year (2008) or they would fail (even though they received $15 billion and none have failed).

But if $13 dollars a week is not enough to get you out spending more money than you can afford, it might help you stay in more. And if you are in more you might try to enjoy a different process that could help you gain more money. Extra kids. Because even if you are too poor to pay taxes, or have at least 3 kids, you can get extra money for more children. That will stimulate the economy.

And since you have more kids you will need a new home (don’t worry about the fact you may not have a job in 6 months). And to help you there, you get an $8,000 tax credit. Of course that ignores the thought that you need to be qualified to get a home in the first place. Since you will need a car for this hoard of children you can get a new car too, and take off the federal tax on that.

All with an extra $13 a week, for half the year, if you make less than $75,000. Does this sound remotely like what got us into this problem in the first place?

But the joy does not end there. If you insulate your home or buy a new furnace, you can get back up to $1,500. The furnace will likely cost $5,000 or more up front and all you have to do is wait a year to get that money back And the insulation can cost up to $55+ per roll (you may need 10 or more rolls for an attic). Mind you that you shouldn’t do both as the credit is for one OR the other. All of this on $400 a year.

You might say that is all well and fine except you need to be sure to have a job. Not to worry if you work for the Government, and we all do right? There are plenty of jobs to build roads, and move offices, and take care of honey bees. You can even get work moving medium sized fish barriers in selected rivers, because we all live near one of those. Or you can get a job in ‘green’ energy, once the technology is created and made efficient. Who care if it’s estimated to take over a decade to create that, you can get a job tomorrow in that field – you do have a Masters in engineering, conservation, chemistry, and/or biology right?

Of course if you worked for say Circuit City and have no job now you still won’t after this package. But the unemployed will get an extra $25 (not per week) in benefits and extended time for those benefits.

All of this will mean that you will have a job and more money just in time for the mid-term elections in 2010. And if you don’t there is a bunch of money left over to spend in that year to tell you that you will get a job right after you vote.

Can you imagine why any fiscal conservative (Democrat or Republican) might not have wanted to spend money on this?

Senator Judd Gregg withdraws and highlights problem

Did anyone notice what just happened? Senator Gregg has just dropped from the nomination as the Commerce Secretary in the Obama Administration. Some may focus on the fact that this is the 2nd person to drop from that post. Some may question the multiple high-profile losses the Obama Administration has encountered. But that isn’t really important in this case.

The reason why Senator Gregg dropped out is important. Because he disagrees with the stimulus plan, which I don’t fault him for, and the census. And it is the census that should demand the most attention.

With so much attention focused on the stimulus and economic conditions of the nation there are several other things happening in the Obama Administration that is being unseen. And with a corrupted news media that still swoons when the President appears, the public is being denied the opportunity to speak about or learn what is happening.

Why is the census important?

The census is more than just a count of the people of the nation. It’s political power. It’s who has control of that power.

Currently the Commerce Department runs the census. And they use human beings to go out and visually count who lives where and how many. Based on those reports the House of Representatives grows or shrinks. With that change comes many other repercussions.

As an example, let’s say that San Francisco is a bastion of far-left liberal democrats. Lets say they have 2 million people according to the last census run by the Commerce Department.

Now what is being proposed by the White House is that they will run the census (or in thier words "work closely with the census director"), and not the Commerce Department. In addition the White House feels that computer models are far more efficient and accurate in deciding how many people live where.

But unlike the Commerce Department, the White house will not publish the computer models, just the results. So like any statistical poll, the models can be made to say almost anything wanted.

Thus in my example, San Francisco could become a city of 5 million people. That doubles the number of Representatives from that city and increases the Democrat power in Congress. The same model could decrease the population in any Republican or Conservative leaning city or town in the same manner. Thus we have an artificial imbalance of power arbitrarily and specifically created by those already in power.

Also going along with this ability to shape political outcomes is the ability to reward those the White House likes, and punish those it does not.

In the same example the increase in population would also give more federal money to San Francisco. That money, like the power would be taken from other cities and towns that the White House does not like, let’s say Dallas for example.

In essence it is a bribe and a manipulation of the Government. It is warping the democratic system this nation is based on. It is purposively taking the power of the people and redistributing it based on the whim of a small group of people, that may not have the best interest of the nation at hand. And who knows how such a hidden, non-transparent system may be abused in the future.

This is not what President Obama promised the nation before and after getting elected President. In fact this violates a promise President Obama did make.

Something needs to be said about this. Something needs to be done to prevent this. Because some far-left wingnuts like Moveon.org may love this idea, but most Americans are far more level-headed and rational that that.

What "Change" amounts to in Washington D.C.

I find it so interesting that some are surprised by the problems in the Obama Administration. It’s not like anyone should have expected the Democrats to be or act better.

To start with the top, President Obama pledged that his Administration would remove the “old politics” and change how Washington does business. It seems the business was given to the public.

Rather than bring in new people to Washington, President Obama has run through the Clinton Administration, and a few popular old Democrats for nearly every position. Nearly each appointment has been a staunch liberal Party-line Democrat.

Case in point is the big pick, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. She ran a campaign grounded in polispeak flip-flops, race baiting, gender cards, and division in the Democratic Party. For this she was rewarded with a position of massive power, repayment of millions in debt from the campaign, and the ability to position herself for a future run at the Presidency.

And let us not forget that Secretary of State Clinton is known for her Whitewater profits, inexperience in world politics (though she borrowed from her husband’s efforts liberally), ability to dodge invisible bullets, association with a fugitive from the law (Norman Hsu) – including her acceptance and reluctance to return $1 million in campaign funds once he was caught, and most recently her inflexibility to remove any question of impartiality regarding international multi-million dollar donations to the Clinton Foundation.

There is of course the joy of Vice President Biden. He is known for his ability to insult minorities, including insulting references to President Obama (when he was Senator Obama) at the drop of a hat. VP Biden is known as well for his multiple political gaffes, and strong liberal leanings. Not to mention is total disdain for the experience of President Obama, as well as his prediction of an impending catastrophic event due solely to the election of President Obama. But he is the bright side of the Administration and Congress.

Then we have Tom Daschle. He is slightly better than Chris Dodd in that his ability to benefit from his position was only temporary. By that I mean he has finally paid $128,000 owed to the IRS. And since he was so kind as to finally make this payment, the IRS decided not to ask him for the $50,000 penalty you and I would normally have been hit with. Never mind the fact that he waited 4 years (from 2005) to make the payment, and that the only foreseeable reason he made the payment was to get this major position. And don’t mind the fact that Daschle is a hypocrite

“Make no mistake, tax cheaters cheat us all, and the IRS should enforce our laws to the letter. ” Sen. Tom Daschle, Congressional Record, May 7, 1998, p. S4507.”

But why should he worry. Since Treasury Secretary Geithner, who runs the IRS, didn’t find it important to pay his taxes either (that took 8 years). At least not in any timely manner. And without the penalty as well.

Keep that in mind when you get your tax bill. Because I guarantee you won’t get the same treatment. But who are you? Just a voter.

But I mentioned Chris Dodd. He runs the Senate Banking Committee. You know the part of Congress that completely ignored every sign of the mortgage crisis. The people who along with Representative Barney Frank in the House Banking Committee looked America in the eyes and said everything was under control and anyone saying otherwise was a liar – right before several banks and AIG had meltdowns. But Chris Dodd is special. Or at least his mortgage company thought so.

It seems that his mortgages, that he promised were the same as everyone else, have turned out to be sweetheart deals. I guess everyone else means every Democrat that holds a political office. And it only took him 6 months or so to reveal this information – that he promised to provide the public 5 months ago. Compared to the others he is lightning fast. It only took until after the election to mention the truth.

Ah, but don’t forget House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The woman behind a stimulus bill that fails to provide stimulus. Unless you think pet projects like honey bees will somehow help those 162,962 people that were laid off in January alone, get new jobs. .html But don’t worry, because she too has her own sweetheart deal in the works. Not that it’s secret, but you should recall that Speaker Pelosi holds a large stock position in a green energy company, one of the areas the stimulus plan will be dedicating money to for research to find a way, over the next 5 years or more, to create anything.

Considering all these problems, issues, bald-faced lies, broken promises, and abuses of power, is anyone really surprised? Because the American people were promised change. And if this isn’t a change (for the worse in my opinion) then can you imagine once all these people really get the ball rolling? Aren’t you excited?

And if you doubt a word of what I have said, just check Google and see the news that the media is keeping quiet. Because it would look really bad if the news media held President Obama and the Democrats accountable after having sold their souls (and committing active self-admitted bias) to get that feeling down their legs.

And some are surprised? Just wait, we have 3 years and 11 months to go.

The true Democrat definition of rich

I just figured out a secret that I don’t think most people in America have noticed. The fact is it’s not much of a secret, it’s more like the elephant in the room. And Democrats have successfully avoided mentioning it for a while now.

Looking at the supposed “stimulus” package that is trying to be shoved through Congress before the public realizes what’s in the package I noticed something. Now we have to step into the way back machine called facts for a moment. Democrats be prepared.

“So, if you make $31,850 or more you may not feel like Bill Gates and Warren Buffett but you are going to get taxed like them.”

Remember that? It was March of 2008 when all the Democratic candidates (including then-Senator Obama) voted to increase taxes on anyone making more than $31,850. It was at that time that Democrats started to insist with high order of polispeak that only the rich would suffer under their leadership.

Of course that leadership also was asleep as the mortgage crisis grew and then spawned the credit crisis. Both of which are still evolving into bigger problems. But I digress.

As then-Senator Obama won the Primaries, he began to discuss, vaguely, his economic and tax plans. It was a central point that he envisioned the rich as the sole point of higher taxes. This of course raised the question, what is rich?

The Obama campaign started to almost answer that question with anyone making around $250,000. That later went down to $200,000. Shortly after that it became $150,000. Then the nation got distracted, as financial institutions fell left and right. The only question at that point was who else Rep. Barney Frank might blame the collapse on other than himself.

Now we can move up to the present.

The House Democrats (minus 11 bi-partisan Democrats who joined the entire Republican membership) voted to pass the bloated, non-immediate, useless, stimulus package that also seeks to fund Honey bees, fix NASA, and study ‘global warming’ among other useless actions. But in this current version of the non-‘stimulus package’ there is a provision for tax rebates.

The money is to be provided to the public, as a savings each month for 4 months of about $120. But here is the catch. It’s only good for up to the first $8150 you earn, so if you exceed that amount before the 4 months are up you lose out.

Worse yet is who will get that money. And this is the elephant. You must make less than $75,000 (or $150,000 jointly). And there is the new definition of rich. The answer that has been over 6 months in the waiting has presented itself.

So if you thought Obama would only tax the rich, hello you very likely are now part of that group. Honestly I never considered making $75,000 as rich. It isn’t poor but its just as far from Bill Gates.

Think about that. Middle class income is a cut-off point for Democrats in Congress, and President Obama who is all in favor of the stimulus package as is. Can anyone tell me this is what they expected when they voted for President Obama?

If this is the threshold for who gets help, and who pays for that help, it seems more lopsided than even during the Primaries where Democrats were leapfrogging each other to sound more moderate and friendly to the public. But Congress is not partisan, nor are the current batch of polispeak promise socialisic – according to the self-admitted major news media.

Let’s be honest. If President Obama told the American public the truth, that he considered $75,000 rich, he never would have been elected. No wonder he never gave a firm answer. And why Democrats have avoided the issue entirely, because the public backlash would sink the approval ratings faster than Nancy Pelosi can waste money. And that is very fast indeed.

Well you may not hear the truth in many other place, but you have heard it from me. If you doubt this, just look up the provisions of the stimulus plan. It’s right there for you to see.

House Democrats are scamming your money

I had a friend ask me why the Republicans are causing trouble. The reference was to why all the House Republicans (and 11 Democrats) voted against the Stimulus Package. And when I mentioned some of the things I have long written, I was asked for more details.

Now I imagine others are wondering about details as well. How can I claim this is a horrible plan that will bankrupt America if there are no specifics. How can I be sure that this won’t stimulate the economy. Perhaps this is just a giant plot of Republicans to make President Obama look bad.

Well back in the land of reality, I decided to see if I could find a few more details on the stimulus package. And here are some of the things your money is being spent on. Remember that this is your money, and you will have to pay for this out of your pocket sometime soon.

$245 million for maintaining and modernizing the IT system of the Farm Service Agency
$175 million to buy and restore floodplain easements for flood prevention
$2.7 billion for rural water and waste disposal direct loans
$150 million for emergency food assistance
$50 million for regional economic development commissions
$1 billion for "Periodic Censuses and Programs"
$650 million for Digital-to-Analog Converter Box Program
$100 million for "Scientific and Technical Research and Services" at the National Institute of Standards And Technology
$30 million for necessary expenses of the "Hollings Manufacturing Extension Partnership"
$300 million for a competitive construction grant program for research science buildings
$400 million for "habitat restoration and mitigation activities" at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
$600 million for "accelerating satellite development and acquisition"
$140 million for "climate data modeling"
$3 billion for state and local law enforcement grants
$1 billion for "Community Oriented Policing Services"
$250 million for "accelerating the development of the tier 1 set of Earth science climate research missions recommended by the National Academies Decadal Survey."
$50 million for repairs to NASA facilities from storm damage
$200 million for "academic research facilities modernization"
$100 million for "Education and Human Resources
$4.5 billion to make military facilities more energy efficient
$18.5 billion for "Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy" research in the Department of Energy
$2.4 billion to demonstrate "carbon capture and sequestration technologies"
$6 billion for energy efficiency projects on government buildings
$600 million to buy and lease government plug-in and alternative fuel vehicles
$150 million for deferred maintenance at the Smithsonian museums
$700 million for "comparative effectiveness research" on prescription drugs
$1 billion for Low-Income Home Energy Assistance
$1 billion for Amtrack

Again this is only part of the list of things that are needed “immediately”, and will “improve the economy”. Please do correct me and explain how Food assistance, research, or climate data modeling are going to improve the economy and help the guy/gal down the block keep their job at the local Macy’s or Office Depot. Please explain how those ex-employees of Home Depot are going to feed their family and pay the bills for the next 2 or 3 years because of repairs to NASA or Earth science research.

I dare you.

Do I think funding for education is important? Definitely. Is it part of a stimulus package meant to help people stay employed tomorrow? No. Thus anything that does not help the NATION create jobs or maintain employment is a waste of time and money in this package.

If Democrats really wanted to improve things, why not take the billions of dollars that are being wasted, roughly $36 billion just from the examples I cited above, and give it directly to the public. That would be about $123 for ever man, woman, and child in the United States right now. Take out children and those not paying taxes (since they can’t repay they don’t get the benefits) and you get around $250 each.

There is still another $790 billion more to look at. Think that there might be just a bit more waste in the 25% of the package that won’t even be spent for 2 or 3 more years. How abut just giving us the money today and not wait 3 years. That would be almost $2,500 each. That would stimulate the economy.

But that isn’t going to happen. Which means the entire package is nothing more than polispeak, and a way for the Government to gain more control of your life. The Republicans that voted against this aren’t bad guys, they are actually helping you. But don’t expect the major media to explain it.

America is failing the children of the world

It’s a real shame that American politics is so filled with polispeak and soundbites that most don’t know how ineffective our Government can be. One of the most glaring failures of our Government can be seen in the Child Soldier Prevention Act.

This was introduced to Congress in 2006, then again in 2007, and again in 2008. It has never become law. In fact it has yet to make it out of committee. Imagine that. It has yet to make it out of committee.

In the 109th Congress, under the title H.R. 5966 this Act was meant

“To end the use of child soldiers in hostilities around the world, and for other purposes.”

In the 110th Congress under the titles of H.R. 2620, H.R. 3028, and S. 1175 (covering 2007 and 2008) this Act never made it into committee.

But at least it was in Congress. Before 2005 it wasn’t even an issue. Even though more than 30,000 children were used as soldiers in just the Congo region from 1998 – 2003. And even with this fact being known, and the Congolese militia leader Thomas Lubanga currently under trial at the International Criminal Court for what he has done, the current 111th Congress has failed to even do its usual half-hearted act of introducing the Act.

I’m not so foolish as to believe that if America’s Congress got off its collective fat ass and passed this Act all the slime of the world would stop using children as soldiers. But it would be a statement. It would be an action. And perhaps the fear of losing American dollars and Government support might decrease the number and desire for child soldiers. Children are the innocents of the world, and they deserve at least that much.

Yet not a single Congress has been able to do anything about this. And I have to wonder why. I would love to know what objection ANY member of Congress has to this Act. What part of ending the use of children in war makes them reluctant to have their name on this Act?

Now some might say this is not a big deal. That if this were important it would be on the news. Except the news media is not in the business of telling the public what is going on in the world. Their job is to distract and emphasize stereotypes, and they do that well. And anything that causes the death of any child that is easily and responsibly preventable should always be done.

Perhaps, just maybe, if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi could stop trying to pump up her wind power stock investment, or searching for something to blame on the past Administration, she could actually lead lead Congress and pass this Act. I can’t see how this could be held up if anyone in Congress actually gave a damn and moved on it.

These aren’t American children. But does that really matter? For Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and the Democrat-led Congress it seems that it does. And I take that as an insult to America.

If you agree, get in touch with your Congressman or Congresswoman. Contact your Senators. Demand that Congress act. It’s a little thing, but it is something. And we can hardly stand in front of the world, professing our belief in freedom and democracy, while we allow the one group in society that cannot act in their own defense to be abused and killed.

The Democratic Party: entertaining with polispeak

Democrats are really something. I don't say this because I favor Democrats. Nor because they are special in any way. And let me clarify this - I am speaking about politicians and not people.

Democrats are just as prone to polispeak. They break campaign promises just as often. They have scandals, ignore constituents, and promote special interests as much as any other political group. But the thing that really gets me is the style they have in doing all this.

Democrats don't just get caught stealing money, they have it sitting in their refrigerator. They don't just nominate (or appoint) officials that no one has heard of or lacking experience, they go out and get people that are particularly unqualified.

Just look at recent events. In New York State we had a Democratic Governor that was actively looking to appoint Caroline Kennedy. She has no experience, has no defined political positions, and her best argument for the position is her last name. Why did she not get the position as Senator? Because she has a massive number of skeletons in her closet; and even with that information Gov. Patterson was still courting her at the last minute.

Then there is Illinois. Gov. Rod Blagojevich was caught trying to sell the Senate seat. Rather than resign, he turned the tables and made an appointment to the position. Thus making the story about the lack of Black Senators, the question of the validity of the appointment, the credibility of the appointee, and the division in the Democratic Party.

In fact the Governor of Illinois is still causing an uproar. because instead of defending himself he is talking about how he wanted Oprah Winfrey for the job. Talk about unqualified.

Yes, Winfrey is intelligent, and popular. Yes she does good deeds, and has a ton of cash. In fact she is the exact equal of Caroline Kennedy. Including the fact that she has no qualification for public office. The closest she has ever come to anything political is her lavish support of President Obama during the Primaries and election. And that puts her on the list of possibles.

Democrats don't just have balls, they are crazy. They seem willing to substitute qualifications for publicity. They seem to promote opinion polls versus positions. And they do so in a hoard of media cameras as if they were entertainers or celebrities. And then they expect us to blame EVERYONE else when things go wrong - like Barney Frank insists.

Other political parties have at least an equal number of foul-ups in their ranks. They all have prima donnas and power-hungry opportunists. But in the Democratic Party it seems that this is the best features in their top ranks.

I just can't wait to see what will happen next. Las Vegas should be running betting pools over what will happen first. Barney Frank blaming the extension of bank failures on someone else (likely the Bush Administration for another 18 months), Secretary of State Clinton being questioned about receiving tens of millions from foreign Governments while in discussions with those nations on behalf of America, Vice President Biden saying something racist and/or stupid, or House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Majority Leader Harry Reid insisting the time of the Congress is best spent combing thru every document and comment ever made in the prior 8 years.

And all the while bulbs will be flashing, and news media will be gushing as President Obama tells the nation that he will change things while they stay exactly the same.

Yet its other political parties that are bad for the nation, filled with malcontents, and ineffective. Only Democrats would have the balls to look the nation in the eyes and spew that polispeak.

Who has bigger balls, Congress or Clinton? Clinton it seems.

Sometimes you almost feel like Congress can get something right. Then you realize it’s Congress – the worst Congress ever, that has accomplished the least ever – and then you know how bad you’re screwed.

Case in point. Senator Hillary Clinton is about to become the Secretary of State. Such an abomination should never happen outside of a nightmare. But the reality is that the wicked witch of pure ambition has made it virtually through the confirmation process.

Then you notice that Senator Lugar has a problem with the conflict of interest Senator Clinton has with the Clinton Foundation. Hurray someone is paying attention. Until he says he won’t hold up her approval.

Then you get another burst of intelligence out of the collectively dim, this time from Sen. John Cornyn. He too has the inspiration to notice that the Clinton Foundation is a conflict if it continues to receive tens of millions from foreign governments while Hillary is Secretary of State.

“Transparency transcends partisan politics and the American people deserve to know more."

Then he goes on to say he won’t block the confirmation either. On top of which the true genius of the Senate, Harry Reid proclaims that he will push Clinton thru either with a voice vote or a roll call vote – which Democrats know can’t be defeated.

So all we have to provide the nation with the assurance that our Secretary of State is unquestionably looking out for the nation is her unyielding ambition for power (which got her this job in the first place) and her assurance that there will be no conflict. Because we all know that the word of a Clinton is unimpeachable.

Except when it comes to commodity trades, adultery, pardons, political backstabbing, talking to the media, establishing a position on illegal immigration, actual political influence, historical fact of work done, or promises to constituents. How could anyone doubt them?

Where are all the balls in Congress? Surely there is a Congressman or woman that is willing to say that based on the past history of the Clintons, and their campaigns, and their top aides, just taking their word is not enough to become Secretary of State. You would think someone would want to hold her up, or attempt to block her. Yet none of the Representatives and Senators of Congress has a backbone it seems. And they are the people that are strong enough to help President Obama lead the nation out of this near depression?

If this is the kind of response we can expect from the 111th Congress, I might wish for the time wasting, money spending, pork barrel loving, ineffective 110th Congress. The days of Congressional hearings seeking to find out known facts and investigate legal actions for months seems like a pleasure cruise to a Congress that is unwilling to question and halt the image of corruption.

What can we expect from them if we find that there actually becomes corruption in fact? Maybe Barney Frank looking dumb in the camera as he watches video of himself spout utter nonsense some more. This time maybe Pelosi and Reid will join him. What a tea party.

The question of the honesty of the Secretary of State, the incorruptibility of the office, is at stake here. This is massively serious. And it is being handled as if this were about parking tickets from the U.N.

If this is what an Obama Administration portends, it’s a dark 4 years coming.

Don’t say I didn’t warn you

I have been talking about the economy and what would happen if a Democrat would win since late 2007. When it became clear that President Obama was the Democratic nominee I discussed how the stock market would react to his win. And after the election I forecasted what would likely happen to the Dow Jones Index on inauguration day.

I hit the nail on the head. Well close enough to that anyway. I called for a 7600 Dow on or shortly after the inauguration. I called for a 500 point drop on inauguration day. And I detailed how the economy would continue to tailspin to levels last seen in the Carter Administration.

The Dow Jones Index closed down 332 points. The Dow currently sits at 7949. That’s down 4% from Friday and 12% since the start of the year.

Some will want to blame this all on President Bush, but the reality from Wall Street is that a Liberal Democratic President is a negative for the economy. If only ½ the economic promises made on the campaign trail come true the national debt will tower over any level seen before, and none of the plans are good for private business. And that is bad for investing.

Still crude oil is at lows, and the inflation hitting food has not increased in a while. So maybe Joe Public doesn’t realize how bad things will get, yet. But Wall Street is preparing. And they are looking at the long haul.

I still target the low of the first half at about 7600. I still believe that the money wasted on the mortgage/ credit bailouts will increase drastically. I say again that the 2nd stimulus plan will be a worse waste of money than the first under President Bush. And I insist that the Democrat-led Congress under Pelosi and Reid are the worst Congress in at least my lifetime.

I really hope to be wrong. But so far I am 4% or 349 points from being exactly on target. Any spike in oil prices, a run on gold, a blip in the value of the dollar, continued fighting in Israel, or any of a number of anti-American nations - and terrorist groups - beating their chests (as Vice President Biden promised will happen) and my targets will be exceeded. And all the feel-good talk prior to the inauguration will evaporate.

Yes the stimulus plan will be a great political boost for our new President. And public opinion will soar, until everyone realizes that the extra $60 a week (or less) will not prevent them from losing jobs. Or that at some point soon you will be paying taxes for a house you don’t own. Or paying for a healthcare system that is substandard and as convoluted as any department of the Government. Stock will lead the way down.

But there is time to avoid all this. Congress can reel back all the new additional spending. President Obama can give up on the 2nd stimulus plan. Taxes could be cut, at both the corporate and personal levels. And departments of the Government could be trimmed of wasteful spending.

In a pig’s eye.

Congress is going to spend more than what has been used to bailout the financial industry as the first shot in the bow. Additional money will soon be needed to balance the financials already continuing to flounder, not counting those that will follow like dominoes. And the auto industry that stated flatly that a penny less than $50 billion in a bailout would mean Chapter 11, will become bankrupt as they did not get their money.

Increased regulation will increase cost, and fail to increase good business decisions. And companies will fail. The stock market will lead it all down. Lines will form for Government corporate handouts. The national debt will soar.

Sounds bleak doesn’t it. It should. It is happening before your eyes. By the end of the 1st quarter Joe Public will feel it, badly. Just in time for taxes.

And if I am only as correct as I was about my prediction for the inauguration, well you can see what that will mean. I hope, honestly hope, that I will be wrong.

I really want to be wrong. But what I see in the marketplace tells me that I am right. That double digit inflation and unemployment are mere months away. And that it will last at least as long as the Obama Administration, if not longer.

So since putting your money in a bank will gain you nothing, the taxes on investments make that plan dumb for anything with a return in the next 2 years, and gold is already moving just wait. Wait and take small bites all the way down. Because America will rebound at some point. Because I hope to be wrong soon. The reward from that will be better than me eating crow, it will be a stronger economy.

I can’t wait.

America is still America

Well it has to be said by someone. I know the hate mail will flow.

I understand, and am gleeful, about the history being made as President Obama becomes the first Black man that is President of the United States. It is a moment that I never expected in my lifetime.

That said, I have to wonder and comment on the way the media and many people are treating this as if the world has instantly changed. It is as if suddenly every wrong in America has been wiped away. Or so the media would like many to believe.

I recall a recent television commercial on BET that I caught as I was flipping channels. It had a little girl trying to watch the inauguration, but was far too short to see over the crowd. Then Dr. Martin Luther King comes and lifts up the girl so she can watch the Oath of Office. The commercial ends with the words, The Dream Achieved.

Hogwash. The television commercial is inspirational, but the message is false. President Obama is not the fulfillment of the dreams of Dr. Martin Luther King, and to suggest as such belittles what he strived for. The Civil Rights Movement was not about just gaining political stature, or a title. It was about the understanding of the fundamental rights of equality that Government and society needs to recognize.

Yes, President Obama is one aspect of that realization. But that does not mean America has reached a point of equality. Oscar Grant was murdered after Obama was elected. Millions of African Americans are drop-outs, and single parents. The pay rates of African Americans still lags that of White peers. The stereotypes of African Americans being criminals and/or violent still permeates music, television and movies (when we have the chance to be seen) by and large. Drugs are still allowed to enter Black and poor communities. The dream is not achieved.

President Obama is just one man. He has entered one position, powerful as it is. And it is worthy of acclaim and celebration. But we should not distract ourselves from the reality that exists before, during and after this moment.

Racism and prejudice still exists in America. It is part of the legal system at every level. It still unbalances the opportunities African Americans (and all other 'minorities') experience in this nation.

10% of this nation vocally stated that they would not accept a non-White president. That is huge. Who knows how many were unwilling to make that same statement publicly. Obviously not enough to prevent President Obama's election, but far more than enough to put me at unease.

There is still only 1 African American in the Senate, a mere handful in the House of Representatives. There are few Governors and Mayors that are African American, or just non-White. There are far less than 1% of major CEO's that are 'minorities'. Even in the far-left, politically highly liberal, halls and studios of Hollywood there is barely more than a scattering of non-Whites in front of or behind the cameras.

It took 14 days for the ex-cop who murdered Oscar Grant in cold blood to be arrested. Protestors of the inaction of police in Oakland were arrested the day of protests. National news media coverage of the murder spoke only to the riots and lawsuit the murder provoked. And virtually nothing was said of other acts of police abuse in the nation at the start of the new year.





The dream has not been achieved, yet.

I am exuberant about President Obama's accomplishment. But the world has not changed this second. Racism has not died. Prejudice has not faded away. The ills and wrongs of this nation have not been wiped clean. The slate is still filled.

Rejoice today because it is a day worthy of celebration. But let us not be distracted from the truth that is daily life. President Obama may change many things, but it won't be tomorrow. He has become a symbol, but action still needs to be taken. Millions will remember this day, but it is only one day.

President Obama is not THE answer. He is not THE only change. He is one part of a huge goal that was hoped for by millions of Americans, including Dr. Martin Luther King. But he is not the end of the road nor the ultimate answer to the challenges before us. The dream is still a dream. And we must still strive to make it a reality.

But thankfully we are one step and one day closer to that reality. Let's just not lose focus.